Robinhood Targets $160 — The Shift to Prediction Markets and On-Chain Infrastructure

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani raised his price target for Robinhood (HOOD) from $130 to $160 on Monday, signaling a massive valuation re-rating (Analyst view — Bernstein). The upgrade hinges on the company's transition toward a vertically integrated model encompassing prediction markets and proprietary blockchain infrastructure.

Prediction Markets Could Drive 64% Revenue Growth Through 2028

Robinhood is moving away from being a mere storefront for third-party products. Previously, the company distributed event contracts through Kalshi, which limited its profit margins to simple referral fees. By launching Rothera, a CFTC-regulated (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) prediction market exchange and clearinghouse, Robinhood now manufactures and sells its own contracts (Confirmed — Bernstein).

This structural shift allows the company to capture the full spread on every trade. Chhugani projects prediction market revenue will grow at a 64% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2028, potentially reaching $1.7 billion (Analyst view — Bernstein). To put that in perspective, this single revenue stream would exceed Robinhood's entire net revenue from just a few years ago.

The company's strategic pivot is already showing signs of adoption. Rothera currently routes 16% of Robinhood’s total event contract volume, and this figure is expected to rise as more activity moves in-house (Confirmed — Bernstein). While Kalshi remains a partner for specific contracts to ensure coverage, the long-term goal is for Rothera to handle the highest-margin products.

Robinhood Chain Processes $3.1 Billion in a Single Week

The launch of Robinhood Chain in July 2026 marked a fundamental shift in the company's technical architecture. In just seven days following its mainnet launch, the chain processed over $3.1 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume (Confirmed — Bernstein). This scale of activity suggests that the platform's move into on-chain assets is gaining immediate traction.

This blockchain infrastructure creates a powerful flywheel when paired with tokenized equities. Users can trade traditional stocks, prediction market contracts, and on-chain assets through a single interface. This integration allows Robinhood to capture economic value at every layer of the transaction lifecycle.

The combination of these technologies is expected to fundamentally alter the company's revenue composition. New asset classes, including prediction markets and tokenized equities, are projected to contribute 18% of total revenue in 2027 (Analyst view — Bernstein). By 2028, this segment is expected to account for 23% of the company's total revenue (Analyst view — Bernstein).

Aggressive Growth Projections Face High Valuation Hurdles

The bull case for Robinhood assumes the company successfully navigates the transition to a multi-asset protocol. Chhugani projects 32% revenue growth, 47% EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) growth, and 49% EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth through 2028 (Analyst view — Bernstein). His 2028 EPS estimate of $4.56 is 39% higher than current consensus estimates (Analyst view — Bernstein).

However, the valuation required to hit a $160 price target is aggressive. This target assumes a 35x one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple (Analyst view — Bernstein). Such a high multiple leaves almost no room for execution errors or regulatory setbacks.

The competitive landscape is also intensifying as specialized players expand their reach. Coinbase has already established a presence in the Layer 2 (a secondary framework built on top of a main blockchain to improve scalability) space with its Base network. Meanwhile, Kalshi continues to expand its own prediction market offerings, evolving from a partner into a direct competitor (Confirmed — Bernstein).

The Risk of Execution Stumbles and Regulatory Shifts

While the expansion into new asset classes is ambitious, the risks are non-trivial. Prediction markets are a nascent category with uncertain long-term demand curves, making revenue projections highly sensitive to market sentiment. Even with a CFTC license for Rothera, regulatory risk remains a constant factor for the firm (Confirmed — Bernstein).

Furthermore, the massive DEX volume seen during the initial launch week of Robinhood Chain may not be sustainable. Analysts note that $3.1 billion in volume during a launch period could decline as the initial novelty of the network wears off (Analyst view — Bernstein). Investors must distinguish between the surge of a new network launch and sustained, long-term on-chain utility.

Key Developments to Watch

• Rothera market share (by November 2026) — the percentage of total event contract volume routed through the proprietary exchange vs. Kalshi.
• Robinhood Chain DEX volume (by Q4 2026) — whether the $3.1 billion launch-week volume stabilizes at a sustainable level.
• 2027 Revenue Mix (by January 2027) — the actual contribution of tokenized equities and prediction markets to total revenue.

Can Robinhood successfully transition from a retail brokerage to a comprehensive financial protocol without losing its core user base to specialized crypto-native platforms?