By Thomas | financial enthusiast

My markets diary: July 13, 2026

The surprise helium shock

First thought was, "This is just another commodity news blip." I was scrolling through the usual tech and biotech buzz when the headline popped up: US Helium Surges as Iran Conflict Escalates and China Tightens Supply. Damned. (I almost missed this.) The data came in at 3:00 pm ET—US helium demand jumped 12% YoY in Q2, a figure that had me scratching my head. I had to sit with this and trace the chain.

Why the US? Supply chain drama

I didn’t realise the US had just become the helium king in such a short time. The story is two‑fold. First, Iran’s recent drone attacks on Israeli targets triggered a spike in US military spending, and helium is a key component in advanced radar and missile guidance systems. Second, China announced a new export quota, cutting its helium supply by 30% this year. That meant global helium had to flow elsewhere—right into the US waterways.

I dove into the numbers: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that helium usage in aerospace and defense grew from 8,300 kg in Q1 to 9,200 kg in Q2. That’s a 10.8% jump, and the price on the CME futures ticked up 15% in a single day. (Works out nicely.) I was surprised because I’d always thought helium was a niche commodity, largely ignored by mainstream investors.

Market reaction and my quick pivot

When the data hit, US shares spiked 1.5%—the Nasdaq Composite up 1.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.9%. The helium story was probably the biggest driver behind the rally. I had to decide whether to add a helium‑related ETF or even a direct futures position.

I Googled the top helium ETFs: H2O, Helium Bullion Fund, and the new Helium Energy ETF (HELX) that launched last month. All three track helium futures and physical holdings. The HELX fund had a 3.5% return in the last quarter, beating the benchmark by 1.8%. Haha, small but meaningful.

My action plan (step‑by‑step)

  1. Open a CFD account with a broker that offers helium futures.
  2. Allocate 2% of my portfolio to a helium ETF (HELX) as a long‑term hold.
  3. Set a stop‑loss at 8% below the current price to limit downside.
  4. Monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Chinese policy updates.

I didn’t realize how quickly a geopolitical flashpoint could turn a niche commodity into a hot market. The first confusion was wondering why helium mattered at all. After digging, I understood the link between helium and advanced defense tech—one of those hidden corner cases that can explode into a big story.

The bigger picture: a new commodity play

This helium surge is more than a headline; it’s a signal that supply shocks can create new investment opportunities. I’ve been knee‑deep in tech and biotech for years, but this reminds me that commodities still have a place in a diversified portfolio.

I keep my eyes on the next data releases—especially the Fed’s minutes and the upcoming Middle East summit. If the conflict deescalates or China lifts its export limits, helium could wobble. Conversely, if tensions rise, the price could keep climbing.

I’m excited to see how this plays out. It’s a reminder that markets are still wild and that keeping an open mind can uncover unexpected gems.

What’s your next unexpected commodity play that you’re considering?